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2.
The New Zealand Medical Journal (Online) ; 136(1573):67-76, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2294393

ABSTRACT

The study also explored i) the associations between skin-to-deltoid-muscle distance across the three recommended sites with sex, body mass index (BMI), and arm circumference, and ii) the proportion of participants with a skin-to-deltoid-muscle distance >20 millimetres (mm), in whom the standard 25mm needle length would not ensure deposition of vaccine within the deltoid muscle. method: When choosing the required needle length to achieve intramuscular vaccination in obese vaccine recipients, consideration needs to be given to the injection site location, sex, BMI and/or arm circumference, as these factors all influence the skin-to-deltoid-muscle distance. Published data report that a standard needle length (25mm) is suitable for most people with a body mass index (BMI) <25 kilograms [kg]/m2.48 However, progressively higher BMIs increase the likelihood of requiring a longer-than-standard needle length for deltoid intramuscular injection.810 Worldwide, immunisation guidelines vary in their instructions on how to choose the correct needle length based on BMI and body weight, or contain non-specific terms such as "larger arms".1113 An accurate measurement of BMI for a vaccine recipient is not always readily available and the interpretation of arm size is subjective, resulting in an increased risk of inappropriate needle length choice and subcutaneous vaccine delivery. An observational study of a SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine, administered with needles of different lengths at the discretion of the vaccinator, did not demonstrate a difference in immunogenicity between those vaccinated with a needle of sufficient versus insufficient length to achieve intramuscular deposition of vaccine.14 However, there is evidence that intramuscular injection results in significantly better immune response compared to subcutaneous delivery of influenza and hepatitis B vaccines.15 Further, there is high-grade evidence that subcutaneous administration of different vaccine types (adjuvanted, live virus and non-adjuvanted) is associated with increased local side effects including abscess and granuloma formation, compared to intramuscular delivery.15" The location of the deltoid intramuscular injection site is defined variably between countries based on anatomical landmarks (Figure 1).

3.
Vaccine ; 41(16): 2690-2695, 2023 04 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2257503

ABSTRACT

AIM: To estimate thresholds for Body Mass Index (BMI) and arm circumference above which a longer needle is needed to ensure intramuscular (IM) delivery of a vaccine in the deltoid muscle at the site recommended by New Zealand (NZ) immunization guidelines. METHODS: A combined analysis of two studies, including 442 adults, with measurements of arm circumference, BMI and skin to deltoid muscle distance (SDMD) at the NZ immunization guideline-recommended IM injection site. Receiver Operator Characteristic curves identified arm circumference and BMI cut-points that gave 100% sensitivity for SDMD thresholds. These thresholds were: SDMD of 20 mm, accounting for a minimal penetration of 5 mm into muscle with the standard needle; and 25 mm, which is the length of a standard needle for IM injection, representing the depth this can reach. RESULTS: Cut-point values for arm circumference, at which a longer needle would be required, were higher for males than females: 35 cm versus 30 cm for the 20 mm cut-point, and 40 cm versus 36.7 cm for the 25 mm cut-point respectively. The BMI cut-points were also higher for male than females: 24.6 kg/m2 versus 23.7 kg/m2 for the 20 mm cut-point, and 38.2 kg/m2 vs 31.6 kg/m2 for the 25 mm cut-point respectively. CONCLUSION: Arm circumference and BMI cut-points provide practical measures from which to choose a needle length that increases the chance of successful IM vaccination. Based on our data, an arm circumference of 35 cm for men and 30 cm for women should prompt selection of a longer needle to ensure intramuscular injection at the deltoid site. Thresholds for the different skin to deltoid sites proposed internationally should be determined to enable successful IM vaccination in clinical practice beyond NZ.


Subject(s)
Obesity , Skin , Adult , Humans , Male , Female , Injections, Intramuscular , New Zealand , Body Mass Index
4.
BMJ Open ; 13(1): e063530, 2023 Jan 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2213955

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: (1) Assess the distribution of skin-to-deltoid-muscle distance (SDMD) at the deltoid intramuscular (IM) injection site; (2) its relationship with demographic and anthropometric variables and (3) Consider the findings in relation to clinical guidance on IM injection, such as COVID-19 vaccines. DESIGN: Systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and SCOPUS between June and July 2021 with no publication date limit. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies reporting measurements of the SDMD in living adults aged 16 years and older, at the deltoid IM injection site, published in English were considered. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two independent reviewers performed each stage of screening, data extraction and quality assessments using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for analytical cross sectional studies. RESULTS: 16 105 papers were identified, of which 11 studies were suitable for review, representing 1414 participants. Heterogeneity in the definition of the deltoid IM injection site, locations measured and methods of measurement precluded meta-analysis. Evidence from ultrasound SDMD measurements demonstrated some patients in all but 'underweight' body mass index (BMI) categories, may require needles longer than 25 mm for successful IM injection. Calliper measurements overestimated SDMD compared with ultrasound. Female sex, higher BMI categories and greater weight in women were associated with greater SDMD. CONCLUSIONS: The reviewed evidence was insufficient to inform definitive needle length 'cut points' for IM injection based on demographic or anthropomorphic variables. Contemporary clinical guidance currently based on this evidence, including the site of injection and choice of needle length, may result in subcutaneous administration in a small proportion of recipients, particularly if obese or of female sex. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021264625.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , Female , Injections, Intramuscular/methods , Cross-Sectional Studies , Needles
5.
Vaccine X ; 13: 100248, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2159372

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To estimate the proportion of adult diabetics with a skin to deltoid muscle distance (SDMD) of > 25 mm, representing a distance greater than the standard needle length used for intramuscular COVID-19 vaccination, and to assess whether anthropometric measurements predict ultrasound SDMD measurements. Design: Non-interventional cross-sectional study. Setting: Single site, non-clinical setting, Wellington, New Zealand. Participants: One hundred participants (50 females) aged at least 18 years diagnosis with diabetes. All participants completed the study. Main outcome measures: The proportions of participants with a SDMD > 25 mm and a SDMD > 20 mm (indicating that the needle would not have penetrated at least 5 mm into the deltoid, which is considered necessary to ensure deposition of vaccine into muscle); the relationship between anthropometric measurements (body weight, body height, body mass index (BMI), skinfold thickness, arm circumference) and SDMD measured by ultrasound. Results: The proportion (95 %CI) of participants with a SDMD > 25 mm was 6/100; 6 % (2.2 to 12.6), and the proportion with a SDMD > 20 mm was 11 % (5.6 to 18.8), of which 9/11 had a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and 9/11 were female. The strongest relationships between anthropometric measurements and SDMD were with arm circumference (r = 0.76, P < 0.001) and BMI (r = 0.73, P < 0.001). Arm circumference and BMI were the best predictors of SDMD measurements with AUC for ROC curves of 0.99 and 0.94 above the 25 mm cut point, 0.97 and 0.89 above the 20 mm cut point respectively. Conclusions: The standard needle length of 25 mm is likely to be insufficient to ensure deposition of COVID-19 vaccine within the deltoid muscle in a small but important proportion of obese adults with diabetes. Arm circumference and BMI are simple measurements that could identify those that need a long needle to ensure successful intramuscular vaccine administration. Funding: Ruth Maud Ring Spencer Estate; Health Research Council of New Zealand (Independent Research Organisation).

6.
Respirology ; 27(11): 994-995, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2038188
7.
Thorax ; 2022 Jul 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1950267

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To compare bronchodilator response after to salbutamol and budesonide/formoterol in adults with stable asthma. METHODS: A double-blind, cross-over, single-centre, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial. Adults with stable asthma were randomised to different orders of two treatment regimens: two actuations of placebo via MDI and one actuation of budesonide/formoterol 200/6 µg via turbuhaler; and one actuation of placebo turbuhaler and two actuations of salbutamol 100 µg via MDI. The primary outcome measure was FEV1 after 2 min. Secondary outcome measures included FEV1, mBorg Dyspnoea Scale score and visual analogue score for breathlessness over 30 min. RESULTS: Forty-nine of 50 potential participants were randomised. One participant withdrew following the first intervention visit and another could not be randomised due to COVID-19 restrictions. The mean (SD) change from baseline FEV1 2 min after treatment administration for budesonide/formoterol and salbutamol was 0.08 (0.14) L, n=49, and 0.17 (0.18) L, n=48, respectively, mean (95% CI) paired difference of -0.097 L (-0.147 to -0.047), p=0.07, against a non-inferiority bound of -0.06 L. In the secondary analysis, FEV1 over 30 min was lower for budesonide/formoterol compared with salbutamol, difference (95% CI): -0.10 (-0.12 to -0.08) L, p<0.001. There were no differences in Visual Analogue Scale score or mBorg Dyspnoea Scale score between treatments. CONCLUSION: The results do not support the primary hypothesis of non-inferiority at the boundary of -0.06 L for the difference between budesonide/formoterol 200/6 µg compared with salbutamol 200 µg for FEV1 at 2 min, and could be consistent with inferiority with a p value of 0.07. For the secondary analysis of FEV1 measurements over time, the FEV1 was higher with salbutamol. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN 12619001387112).

9.
Vaccine ; 40(33): 4827-4834, 2022 08 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1907858

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The mRNA COVID vaccines are only licensed for intramuscular injection but it is unclear whether successful intramuscular administration is required for immunogenicity. METHODS: In this observational study, eligible adults receiving their first ComirnatyTM/BNT162b2 dose had their skin to deltoid muscle distance (SDMD) measured by ultrasound. The relationship between SDMD and height, weight, body mass index, and arm circumference was assessed. Three needle length groups were identified: 'clearly sufficient' (needle exceeding SDMD by >5 mm), 'probably sufficient' (needle exceeding SDMD by ≤ 5 mm), and 'insufficient' (needle length ≤ SDMD). Baseline and follow-up finger prick blood samples were collected and the primary outcome variable was mean spike antibody levels in the three needle length groups. RESULTS: Participants (n = 402) had a mean age of 34.7 years, BMI 29.1 kg/m2, arm circumference 37.5 cm, and SDMD 13.3 mm. The SDMD was >25 mm in 23/402 (5.7%) and >20 mm in 61/402 (15.2%) participants. Both arm circumference (≥40 cm) and BMI (≥33 kg/m2) were able to identify those with a SDMD of >25 mm, the length of a standard injection needle, with a sensitivity of 100% and specificities of 71.2 and 79.9%, respectively. Of 249/402 (62%) participants with paired blood samples, there was no significant difference in spike antibody titres between needle length groups. The mean (SD) spike BAU/mL was 464.5 (677.1) in 'clearly sufficient needle length' (n = 217) compared with 506.4 (265.1) in 'probably sufficient' (n = 21, p = 0.09), and 489.4 (452.3) in 'insufficient needle length' (n = 11, p = 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: A 25 mm needle length is likely to be inadequate to ensure vaccine deposition within the deltoid muscle in a small proportion of adults. Vaccine-induced spike antibody titres were comparable in those vaccinated with a needle of sufficient versus insufficient length suggesting deltoid muscle deposition may not be required for an adequate antibody response to mRNA vaccines.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Adult , Antibodies, Viral , BNT162 Vaccine , COVID-19 Vaccines , Deltoid Muscle , Humans , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , RNA, Messenger
10.
Trials ; 23(1): 534, 2022 Jun 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1905665

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exposed the disproportionate effects of pandemics on frontline workers and the ethical imperative to provide effective prophylaxis. We present a model for a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT) that utilises Bayesian methods to rapidly determine the efficacy or futility of a prophylactic agent. METHODS: We initially planned to undertake a multicentre, phase III, parallel-group, open-label RCT, to determine if hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) taken once a week was effective in preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in healthcare workers (HCW) aged ≥ 18 years in New Zealand (NZ) and Ireland. Participants were to be randomised 2:1 to either HCQ (800 mg stat then 400 mg weekly) or no prophylaxis. The primary endpoint was time to Nucleic Acid Amplification Test-proven SARS-CoV-2 infection. Secondary outcome variables included mortality, hospitalisation, intensive care unit admissions and length of mechanical ventilation. The trial had no fixed sample size or duration of intervention. Bayesian adaptive analyses were planned to occur fortnightly, commencing with a weakly informative prior for the no prophylaxis group hazard rate and a moderately informative prior on the intervention log hazard ratio centred on 'no effect'. Stopping for expected success would be executed if the intervention had a greater than 0.975 posterior probability of reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 10%. Final success would be declared if, after completion of 8 weeks of follow-up (reflecting the long half-life of HCQ), the prophylaxis had at least a 0.95 posterior probability of reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 10%. Futility would be declared if HCQ was shown to have less than a 0.10 posterior probability of reducing acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 20%. DISCUSSION: This study did not begin recruitment due to the marked reduction in COVID-19 cases in NZ and concerns regarding the efficacy and risks of HCQ treatment in COVID-19. Nonetheless, the model presented can be easily adapted for other potential prophylactic agents and pathogens, and pre-established collaborative models like this should be shared and incorporated into future pandemic preparedness planning. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The decision not to proceed with the study was made before trial registration occurred.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , COVID-19/prevention & control , Health Personnel , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/adverse effects , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2
11.
N Z Med J ; 135: 120-130, 2022 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1897644

ABSTRACT

AIM: As New Zealand transitions towards endemic SARS-CoV-2, understanding patient factors predicting severity, as well as hospital resourcing requirements will be essential for future planning. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled patients hospitalised with COVID-19 from 26 February to 5 October 2020 as part of the COVID-19 HospitalisEd Patient SeverIty Observational Study NZ (COHESION). Data on demographics, clinical course and outcomes were collected and analysed as a descriptive case series. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients were identified across eight district health boards. Forty-one (49%) were male. The median age was 58 years [IQR: 41.7-70.3 years]. By ethnicity, hospitalisations included 38 NZ European (45%), 19 Pasifika (23%), 13 Maori (15%), 12 Asian (14%) and 2 Other (2%). Pre-existing co-morbidities included hypertension (26/82, 32%), obesity (16/66, 24%) and diabetes (18/81, 22%). The median length of stay was four days [IQR: 2-15 days]. Twelve patients (12/83, 14%) were admitted to an intensive care unit or high dependency unit (ICU/HDU). Ten (10/83, 12%) patients died in hospital of whom seven (70%) were not admitted to ICU/HDU; the median age at death was 83 years. CONCLUSION: Despite initially low case numbers in New Zealand during 2020, hospitalisation with COVID-19 was associated with a high mortality and hospital resource requirements.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , New Zealand/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Front Immunol ; 12: 765528, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1555219

ABSTRACT

Influenza vaccination is an effective public health measure to reduce the risk of influenza illness, particularly when the vaccine is well matched to circulating strains. Notwithstanding, the efficacy of influenza vaccination varies greatly among vaccinees due to largely unknown immunological determinants, thereby dampening population-wide protection. Here, we report that dietary fibre may play a significant role in humoral vaccine responses. We found dietary fibre intake and the abundance of fibre-fermenting intestinal bacteria to be positively correlated with humoral influenza vaccine-specific immune responses in human vaccinees, albeit without reaching statistical significance. Importantly, this correlation was largely driven by first-time vaccinees; prior influenza vaccination negatively correlated with vaccine immunogenicity. In support of these observations, dietary fibre consumption significantly enhanced humoral influenza vaccine responses in mice, where the effect was mechanistically linked to short-chain fatty acids, the bacterial fermentation product of dietary fibre. Overall, these findings may bear significant importance for emerging infectious agents, such as COVID-19, and associated de novo vaccinations.


Subject(s)
Dietary Fiber/pharmacology , Immunity, Humoral/drug effects , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/immunology , Adolescent , Adult , Animals , Dietary Fiber/metabolism , Fatty Acids, Volatile/metabolism , Fatty Acids, Volatile/pharmacology , Female , Fermentation , Gastrointestinal Microbiome/drug effects , Gastrointestinal Microbiome/immunology , Humans , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , Influenza, Human/microbiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Male , Mice , Middle Aged , Orthomyxoviridae/immunology , Seasons , Vaccination , Young Adult
13.
BMJ Open ; 11(8): e053446, 2021 08 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1376513

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Heart disease in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common but neglected comorbidity. Patients with COPD are frequently excluded from clinical trials of treatments aimed at reducing cardiac morbidity and mortality, which has led to undertreatment of cardiovascular disease in patients with COPD. A particular concern in COPD is the underuse of beta (ß)-blockers. There is observational evidence that cardioselective ß-blockers are safe and may even reduce mortality risk in COPD, although some evidence is conflicting. There is an urgent need to answer the research question: Are cardioselective ß-blockers safe and of benefit in people with moderately severe COPD? The proposed study will investigate whether cardioselective ß-blocker treatment in patients with COPD reduces mortality and cardiac and respiratory morbidity. METHODS AND ANALYSES: This is a double-blind, randomised controlled trial to be conducted in approximately 26 sites in Australia, New Zealand, India, Sri Lanka and other countries as required. Participants with COPD will be randomised to either bisoprolol once daily (range 1.25-5 mg, dependent on tolerated dose) or matched placebo, in addition to receiving usual care for their COPD over the study duration of 24 months.The study will enrol 1164 participants with moderate to severe COPD, aged 40-85 years. Participants will be symptomatic from their COPD and have a postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) ≥30% and ≤70% predicted and a history of at least one exacerbation requiring systemic corticosteroids, antibiotics or both in the prior 24 months. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol has been approved by the Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee at The Concord Repatriation General Hospital. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT03917914; CTRI/2020/08/027322.


Subject(s)
Bisoprolol , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive , Bisoprolol/therapeutic use , Disease Progression , Double-Blind Method , Forced Expiratory Volume , Humans , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/drug therapy , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
14.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(12): 1358-1360, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1366757
15.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 8(1)2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1346069

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Guideline recommendations state oxygen should be administered to acutely unwell patients to achieve a target oxygen saturation (SpO2) range. The current practice of manual oxygen titration frequently results in SpO2 outside of a prescribed range. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of automatic oxygen titration using a closed-loop feedback system to achieve SpO2 within a prescribed target range METHODS: An open-label randomised parallel group trial was undertaken comparing automatic oxygen titration using a novel nasal high-flow device to manual oxygen titration using nasal high flow. Medical inpatients requiring oxygen therapy in Wellington Regional Hospital, New Zealand with a prescribed target SpO2 range of 88%-92% or 92%-96% were recruited and randomised equally between the interventions for a period of 24 hours. The primary outcome was the proportion of time spent with SpO2 within the prescribed range. RESULTS: 20 patients were included in the analysis. Automatic oxygen titration resulted in a median (IQR) 96.2% (95.2-97.8) of time within the target range compared with 71% (59.4-88.3) with manual titration; difference (95% CI) 24.2% (7.9% to 35%), p<0.001. There was a reduction in the time spent with SpO2 ≥2% above and ≥2% below range in the automatic titration group, although the point estimate for the differences were small; -1% (-8.2% to -0.04%), p=0.017 and -2.4% (-11.5% to 0.3%), p=0.05 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Nasal high-flow with automatic oxygen titration resulted in a greater proportion of time spent with SpO2 in target range compared with manual titration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000901101).


Subject(s)
Inpatients , Oxygen , Acute Disease , Australia , Humans , Oxygen Inhalation Therapy
16.
Intensive Care Med ; 47(8): 867-886, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1305144

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To study the efficacy of lopinavir-ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Critically ill adults with COVID-19 were randomized to receive lopinavir-ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, combination therapy of lopinavir-ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine or no antiviral therapy (control). The primary endpoint was an ordinal scale of organ support-free days. Analyses used a Bayesian cumulative logistic model and expressed treatment effects as an adjusted odds ratio (OR) where an OR > 1 is favorable. RESULTS: We randomized 694 patients to receive lopinavir-ritonavir (n = 255), hydroxychloroquine (n = 50), combination therapy (n = 27) or control (n = 362). The median organ support-free days among patients in lopinavir-ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, and combination therapy groups was 4 (- 1 to 15), 0 (- 1 to 9) and-1 (- 1 to 7), respectively, compared to 6 (- 1 to 16) in the control group with in-hospital mortality of 88/249 (35%), 17/49 (35%), 13/26 (50%), respectively, compared to 106/353 (30%) in the control group. The three interventions decreased organ support-free days compared to control (OR [95% credible interval]: 0.73 [0.55, 0.99], 0.57 [0.35, 0.83] 0.41 [0.24, 0.72]), yielding posterior probabilities that reached the threshold futility (≥ 99.0%), and high probabilities of harm (98.0%, 99.9% and > 99.9%, respectively). The three interventions reduced hospital survival compared with control (OR [95% CrI]: 0.65 [0.45, 0.95], 0.56 [0.30, 0.89], and 0.36 [0.17, 0.73]), yielding high probabilities of harm (98.5% and 99.4% and 99.8%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Among critically ill patients with COVID-19, lopinavir-ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, or combination therapy worsened outcomes compared to no antiviral therapy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Drug Treatment , Ritonavir , Adult , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Bayes Theorem , Critical Illness , Drug Combinations , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Lopinavir/therapeutic use , Ritonavir/therapeutic use , SARS-CoV-2
18.
ERJ Open Res ; 7(1)2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1094023

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There has been considerable international variation in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences between mortality registered as due to COVID-19 and the excess all-cause mortality reported in countries worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Ecological analysis of 22 countries compared 5-year historical all-cause mortality, reported all-cause mortality and expected all-cause mortality (calculated as historical mortality plus the reported deaths attributed to COVID-19). Data available from the first week of January 2020 to that most recently available were analysed. RESULTS: Compared to the preceding 5 years, there was an excess of 716 616 deaths, of which 64.3% were attributed to COVID-19. The proportion of deaths registered as COVID-19-related/excess deaths varied markedly between countries, ranging between 30% and 197% in those countries that had an excess of deaths during the period of observation. In most countries where a definite peak in COVID-19-related deaths occurred, the increase in reported all-cause mortality preceded the increase in COVID-19 reported mortality. During the latter period of observation, a few countries reported fewer all-cause deaths than the historical figures. CONCLUSION: The increases in all-cause mortality preceded the increase in COVID-19 mortality in most countries that had definite spikes in COVID-19 mortality. The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 was underestimated by at least 35%. Together these findings suggest that calculation of excess all-cause mortality is a better predictor of COVID-19 mortality than the reported rates, in those countries experiencing definite increases in mortality.

19.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 203(7): 799-801, 2021 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088354
20.
BMJ Open ; 11(1): e042464, 2021 01 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1054681

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the self-isolating household units (bubbles) during the COVID-19 Alert Level 4 lockdown in New Zealand. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cross-sectional study, an online survey was distributed to a convenience sample via Facebook advertising and the Medical Research Institute of New Zealand's social media platforms and mailing list. Respondents were able to share a link to the survey via their own social media platforms and by email. Results were collected over 6 days during Alert Level 4 from respondents living in New Zealand, aged 16 years and over. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome was the mean size of a self-isolating household unit or bubble. Secondary outcomes included the mean number of households in each bubble, the proportion of bubbles containing essential workers and/or vulnerable people, and the mean number of times the home was left each week. RESULTS: 14 876 surveys were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) bubble size was 3.58 (4.63) people, with mean (SD) number of households 1.26 (0.77). The proportion of bubbles containing one or more essential workers, or one or more vulnerable persons was 45.3% and 42.1%, respectively. The mean number of times individual bubble members left their home in the previous week was 12.9 (12.4). Bubbles that contained at least one vulnerable individual had fewer outings over the previous week compared with bubbles that did not contain a vulnerable person. The bubble sizes were similar by respondent ethnicity. CONCLUSION: In this New Zealand convenience sample, bubble sizes were small, mostly limited to one household, and a high proportion contained essential workers and/or vulnerable people. Understanding these characteristics from a country which achieved a low COVID-19 infection rate may help inform public health interventions during this and future pandemics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Family Characteristics , Residence Characteristics/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Family Characteristics/ethnology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander/statistics & numerical data , New Zealand/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires , Vulnerable Populations/statistics & numerical data , White People/statistics & numerical data
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